[published in February 2011. Corrected in 2013. All errors in prediction are preserved for future slices of humble pie]
So my thoughts are:
Germany's going to slow.
Brazil is going to slow.
Eastern Europe will do better than in the last recession.
Egypt will rise like Turkey is rising.
India and China will continue growing but more slowly
Argentina will continue growing.
Southeast Asia and Australis will continue growing.
Indonesia and Philippines wil pick up while South Korea will slow over the long term.
France will stutter in the short term and when come back up somewhat. It will nevertheless follow the European trajectory.
The UK will do very badly in the short term and do worse in the long term because they don't have the ability to execute on societal solutions, at least relative to their continental cousins. They undertake societal solutions but shudder as they do because they are instinctively non-egalitarian.
Canada will do well because so much of the minerals and metals that people are storing value into are being mined there. As agrarian economies take off in a world where food prices continue to rise, Canada will do well.
Russia will continue to decline as will Central Asia.
Southern Africa and West Africa will do well but not Central Africa as those areas will be decolonised by new African colonisers.
Pakistan will do worse. Bangladesh will do better. Iran will do worse. Iraq will be continue to be bad as it stutters towards democracy and weaning away the Iranian shia meddling form the east (especially as Iran does worse)
Syria will fall and Lebanon will do better.
Israel will do worse.
Jordan will be the same.
Saudi Arabia will do much worse as the Kingdom falls apart and turns in the short term from covertly supporting extremism to overtly doing so.
Southern Sudan will do much better for two decades and then stagnate for a long time as its populace learns about its new institutions.
Morocco will do very well. Tunisia will do very well. Algeria will do badly int he short term as the government will fall but will do well in the long term. It will revert to essentially being a French client state.
The US will do worse as its relative economic decline and the parlous state of democratic institutions gains recognition. 80 years ago, the US was among the few democratic countries and its institutions looked robust in comparison to those of other countries. The only countries against which US democratic institutions look particularly robust are China and Russia.
New democracies around the world have come into existence with a much sharper focus on governance even as protection of commerce temporarily takes precedence in older democracies.
Although presidential democracy is still common, increasingly it will be clear that assemblies and the parliamentary style of democracy will be important to prevent "strong men" ruining new institutions.
Australia will do well and New Zealand will probably stagnate.
Greece will do very badly in the short term but slowly regain the strength of its economy.
So my thoughts are:
Germany's going to slow.
Brazil is going to slow.
Eastern Europe will do better than in the last recession.
Egypt will rise like Turkey is rising.
India and China will continue growing but more slowly
Argentina will continue growing.
Southeast Asia and Australis will continue growing.
Indonesia and Philippines wil pick up while South Korea will slow over the long term.
France will stutter in the short term and when come back up somewhat. It will nevertheless follow the European trajectory.
The UK will do very badly in the short term and do worse in the long term because they don't have the ability to execute on societal solutions, at least relative to their continental cousins. They undertake societal solutions but shudder as they do because they are instinctively non-egalitarian.
Canada will do well because so much of the minerals and metals that people are storing value into are being mined there. As agrarian economies take off in a world where food prices continue to rise, Canada will do well.
Russia will continue to decline as will Central Asia.
Southern Africa and West Africa will do well but not Central Africa as those areas will be decolonised by new African colonisers.
Pakistan will do worse. Bangladesh will do better. Iran will do worse. Iraq will be continue to be bad as it stutters towards democracy and weaning away the Iranian shia meddling form the east (especially as Iran does worse)
Syria will fall and Lebanon will do better.
Israel will do worse.
Jordan will be the same.
Saudi Arabia will do much worse as the Kingdom falls apart and turns in the short term from covertly supporting extremism to overtly doing so.
Southern Sudan will do much better for two decades and then stagnate for a long time as its populace learns about its new institutions.
Morocco will do very well. Tunisia will do very well. Algeria will do badly int he short term as the government will fall but will do well in the long term. It will revert to essentially being a French client state.
The US will do worse as its relative economic decline and the parlous state of democratic institutions gains recognition. 80 years ago, the US was among the few democratic countries and its institutions looked robust in comparison to those of other countries. The only countries against which US democratic institutions look particularly robust are China and Russia.
New democracies around the world have come into existence with a much sharper focus on governance even as protection of commerce temporarily takes precedence in older democracies.
Although presidential democracy is still common, increasingly it will be clear that assemblies and the parliamentary style of democracy will be important to prevent "strong men" ruining new institutions.
Australia will do well and New Zealand will probably stagnate.
Greece will do very badly in the short term but slowly regain the strength of its economy.
1 comment:
hmmm me too. I think you are on to something!
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