A response to your recent article on Apple in the Star

Mr. Olive,

In general I like your articles but your grasp on technology trends is iffy at best.

You got the facts wrong on the plans ($50 minimum.) Your historical analogy is, in general, problematic because the computer industry and smartphone industry are different (different distribution channels), the technology is at a different stage of maturity even as the hardware capability is at a similar stage, the relationships between the software licensor and the manufacturer are different (proprietary versus open source), technology law is more restrictive (jail breaking), and the Internet exists.

Computers are now more consumption devices than production devices. Then it was great to be able to do desktop publishing and automate tasks. Now it is great to watch stuff made by others and read ebooks written by others.

Tight high quality integration in an internet world of many technologies is more of a sell than it used to be (witness the failure of both desktop linux and symbian) a problem that continues to bedevil open source "container philosophy" designs (the software is built up with nested containers from different sources)

The iPhone and by extension the iPad will continue to do well in places where historically apple struggled because these are not computer products sold to IT departments directly or through computer stores- these are telecommunications products promoted by phone companies on behalf of apple (even the iPad because it necessitates a data plan)

RIM's problem is they made pagers and they make phones. They don't make computers and the quality of their smartphone product in comparison to Apple shows that. Their competitor is selling a computer through their distribution channel. Google is doing what apple did but the only advantage they have on Apple is manufacturers (Sony,LG) pushing the product- which isn't key. If Rogers pushes product A doesn't matter what LG pushes. With its single exclusive vendor strategy in markets, Apple punches much above its weight for its market size in terms of a distributor pushing its product.

Finally if you have an iPhone you are more likely to buy an iPad. Match that across the product platforms and you will come across opportunities for cross selling that none of Apple's competitors have.

Look back at every product that was supposed to be an "iPod-killer" and how the ipod has dominated the market and then combine that with the thought that the iPad reaches, through telecom companies, and apple's existing channels, a much larger worldwide market than the original iPod. And consider that when apple's mobile ad-serving platform is rolled out, apple will make a lot more money per unit of iPhone os shipped than rim and google combined.

I see LG wants to have its own app store. So we will have an LG app store layered on a google app store? That is about to turn into an integration nightmare. And given that Android is open source why would you/manufacturer, give all your money to google?

I see many lifelong windows users in the office gush over the iPad and also see that our IT dept will support the iPad now, having rejected the Mac and the iPhone.

The appropriate market is to the time of the Apple II not the Macintosh, and this time the IBM of old isn't there and control over software is a lot more intrusive

( not that I like software controls- just saying the analogy is problematic.)

Regards

Hari