This election isn't about economics. It's about identity. Strange that I say that because I am usually the first to say "it's all about the money". John Howard is right when he says that when you change the government you change the country. Mark Latham (ALP leader- last election) was too early and too intense. Now, perhaps Australian society is more willing to move on from the post-colonial identity (as guards change in Germany, France, Britain, and the US. Canada jumped the gun in the 70s and 80s and is presently marking time). I watch the polls every day- it's good to see Rudd doing well. I think Aussies are willing to give Rudd a chance because he combines an understanding of new challenges (China, East Asia ... he doesn't understand India) with a sober respect for accumulated achievements. Unlike in the last election, Howard has not been able to convince voters that the old problems (how white countries should manage the world) haven't fully faded in the face of new problems (everyone wants to manage the world).
Of course the economics is important and people see bandwidth available to invest in the future but I think there is finally a subliminal understanding building that the world has changed and new leaders have to be found. The "Battler" constituency that has supported Howard will continue to fade. It is interesting that in Britain, by taking essentially conservative positions on identity issues and forcing the Conservative Party onto new territory, New Labour without Blair has disenfranchised the bloc that was the yob/blue collar vote. These voters will, I think, find homes elsewhere on different issues bleeding away what has long been a chauvinistic bedrock in British politics. This is of course speculation on my part but I wonder if this is the British equivalent of the Battler vote. Of course, Oz is not about to become a latte-sipping leftie land but I think that the sustained period of economic prosperity has meant that the old lines of the economic divide have changed.
I will continue this idle speculation about Oz after thinking more about Wolfgang Munchau's views on Franco-German politics in the FT.
1 comment:
Yes Dear who knows whom (?), I think you are quite right in comparing the British 'chav' to the the Aussie 'battler.' They are both cultural sub-currents that have been politically disenfranchised while 'their' party has held office. Rudd has many qualities for which he must be favoured, one of them being that he has a sense of the enormity of taking down Johnny. He knows that he is running a marathon along the great wall of China. He also knows how to duck when a spear is thrown by maraudering tribes below him. Latham was a cowboy and did not share this quality.
I will try to solicit the authoritive word of my sister on this issue. Remember to bear in mind that SHE WOULD EAT YOU FOR BREAKFAST!
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