This is an analysis of Wolgang Munchau's article in the Financial Times
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/f9aec5d8-06ed-11dc-93e1-000b5df10621.html
Contrary to what foolish American and Canadian right-wing commentators see as a triumph for the laissez-faire ideology in Nicholas Sarkozy's victory, Wolfgang Munchau argues convincingly that as the baby-boom bulge ages, there is a structural majority developing on the centre-left in both France and Germany- arguably globalisation will deepen this trend. I suspect that this solidifying of the centre-left will occur even in countries like Poland as sections of the labour force get priced out of the global market.
This article is interesting because, extending this analysis to Canada, one can see that Canada is ahead of the curve in that it already has a structural majority on the left. I suspect that the baby boom and immigration meant that the post 1968 crowd is a larger percentage of the voting public in Canada than in France or Germany. If you add in new immigrant, you get the centre-left structural majority continuing. This is because conservative parties can never truly represent immigrants (coloured or otherwise) who always face systemic disadvantages (one notable exception is Australia where blue-collar labour voters who switched to the liberals (right-wing) after they moved there.) A similar white voter consolidation has not come about in Canada due to the language wars, the very rapid change in the demographic of newcomers between 1981 and 1991, and the dramatic refactoring of national identity by papa Trudeau) Anyway, I suspect that over the next few years, conservative electoral problems will not be solved by appealing to rural racism in Quebec. Montreal- a bastion of the multicultural centre-left grows stronger not weaker in Quebec. Even the extra seats in conservative bases in the west will be vulnerable due to growing immigration, boomer and gen-x urban consolidation in urban areas. The Canadian political outlook is sunny.
2 comments:
After seeing the fervent demonstrators at the Heiligendamm summit, few could argue against Munchau's central thesis; the continental conservative left is alive and kicking. Staunch supporter that I am of all things left-wing, I feel that my co-blogsahib might be joining the dots a little too erratically on the Canadian front.
It is the historical terrain that is different. Canada, as a part of the 'New World' means that demarcations like 'the 68 crowd' are more difuse in Canada, or at least much more so than in France or Germany. That does not mean that Canadians will unreservedly vote with their purses. It just means that the tendencies from across the atlantic will not necessarily correlate 1:1.
Maybe I'm wrong . . ?
well, the world is pretty wacky. you never know.
I think the argument about demographics- post-68-bulge and immigration are pretty solid. As Canada was vastly more depopulated than the US, the impact of teh bulge and the non-white immigration is much larger than further south.
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