the real blog the first (dion, rae, iggy etc.)

Burned repeatedly by my experiences with another blog site, I have turned to blogger. Of course the fact that I can log in with my Google id is a big plus.

So here goes:-

I see the results. Iggy baby the lover of moral wars is up front with Bob Rae, Dion and Kennedy in the chase. Of the four, Kennedy is the weakest even though he is second in Ontario and strong in the west. This is because he is zero in Quebec. And the truth is, no matter how many people say the west is there to be won, Quebec is a far more alluring prospect for the following reasons:

• Federalist Quebeckers and urban Ontarians are roughly parallel in voting patterns and ideologies.
  
• The federalist vote in Quebec is often there to be won en bloc.
• Ontarian and Quebec voters often prefer parties that are acceptable to each other (it remains to be seen whether this holds).

So where do we go from here?

• If Iggy is tops then he would probably keep the suburban voter within the liberal fold as well as bring in some conservative federalist votes in Quebec back to the Liberals. Assuming he keeps up the messianic miasma of tony bliar he would also solidify the NDP vote bank in Toronto and Vancouver and its budding opportunities in Montreal.

• If Rae comes in, he will eat the NDP lunch in urban Canada but may lose votes in rural Canada as well as suburban Ontario. Overall he will soften the NDP vote and solidify the conservative vote and push centre-right voters to the Conservatives. Still, he might make win because more NDP voters are likely to vote strategically for the liberals than are liberals likely to move to the conservatives. I suspect this is because strategic voting may often take place with a national perspective but protest voting may be localised.
• If Dion comes in, he will pull in improve Quebec prospects but may not be able to enlarge or hold on to Ontario votes. That is up in the air though. If he works well with his Ontario lieutenants, he will do well there. Dion though, alone among the eastern candidates will be able to improve liberal prospects in the west. I suspect this is because he is very staunchly federalist, and has a dour but honest and straightforward manner. He isn't evasive when he speaks and can speak idealistically without sounding puffy or strained.
• Kennedy can't come in. He seems to be a great candidate but he needs to work hard on his French. Quebec voters, whether they agree with him or not, appreciate Harper's desire and tenacity in learning the language well enough to carry out debates. Kennedy needs to demonstrate that. He is a westerner and get seats in the prairie provinces easier than the other candidates but to make headway in QC and NB, he better learn French very well.

Other thoughts:

• If any of the other three throw Ignatieff their support, he is probably clear and Layton will have a skip in his step as he will be the only national leader to oppose the war.
• If Kennedy folds to Dion, Rae will have trouble. Dion has enough traction in QC and Kennedy enough in ON and both enough in BC to make trouble for Rae. Rae can then go for broke and chance a split on the left (allowing Iggy through) or fold to his old buddy Iggy, who will probably win.
• If Kennedy folds to Rae, Dion is done. Dion doesn't have enough traction to counter their strength in ON and BC and Rae has good standing in QC. Dion will then be the king-maker. If he folds to Iggy. Iggy wins. If he folds to Rae, Rae will win.
• If Kennedy folds to Dion and Rae loses traction in the later rounds, Rae may fold to Dion (unlikely though). In that scenario it would be an even match between Iggy and Dion- two very different candidates. Dion would have the advantage in terms of liberal party tradition (next prime minister should be francophone) but Iggy would have the advantage of having the big money liberal establishment behind him. That would be the most interesting contest.

We shall see. We shall see.