Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Germany and Russia

I read in the papers that Germany is going to be Russia's main distributor for Gas in Europe going forward. All the gas from the Shtokman field to Europe may go through Germany. This move is very interesting- it goes to show that the "special relationship" between Germany and Russia will probably endure and deepen. Putin is great at foreign policy- he is using the foreign policy potential of Russia's energy resources to the maximum use by improving Russia's influence over Germany and China.
Unlike China with whom Russia has common cause in its efforts at resisting American foreign policy, Germany isn't likely to intrude upon Russia's sphere of influence in the near future. Yet, aside from any sentimental attractions Germany may have for Putin (East Germany was his old KGB stomping ground) Germany offers Russia a solid gateway to Europe, the ability to counter Poland's historical dislike of Russia and the veneer of west European acceptance.
Germany is also not "up for grabs" in terms of influence like India or Ukraine. The move from Shroeder to Merkel demonstrates that. If anything American policy influence over Germany continues to wane.
Russia has the geographic and resource spread to be actively engaged with both China and Europe in spite of its weak (though strengthening) economy. Thus even if its efforts at maintaining relationships with former client states in the Middle East, Africa and Asia are relatively unsuccessful, it is able to maintain influence in two of the four major theatres in the world, Europe and East Asia. Kudos to Putin for playing his cards well- his energy diplomacy has been remarkably successful and his courting of Germany is set to effectively split western opposition as well as bolster his influence with the Franco-German motor of Europe.

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