It all boils down to whether...

.. she can speak French fluently. Yes, we know she can speak German and maybe if she moves to Germany double-quick, she can challenge Angela Merkel for the dubious honour of being the Chancellor that watched over the decline of Germany.

What I like to call the Belinda Effect will be felt not only in the short term with the numbers on the voting floor of the Canadian Parliament, but also in the medium-long term with regard to the Liberal Party's chances with Quebec voters (75 seats out of 305).

But first Ontario:

Belinda Stronach's move away from the Conservative Party enhances a schism between the old white male anglo-saxon voter in Alberta and the young female professional pro-choice voter in Ontario. She was supposed to be the bridge between Stephen Harper's world and Dalton McGuinty's world. At the very least she was the face that would reassure people who didn't think such a bridge was possible. Now that the possibility is gone, she has not only delivered the political centre to the Federal Liberals in the next election, she has probably also brought back some soft-Liberal/NDP voters who were alienated by the way Sheila Copps was turfed out of the party by Paul Martin. Suffice to say, to a Liberal front bench that light on looks, youth and charisma, she is a godsend.

Now Quebec:

As mentioned above, the Liberal front bench is desperately in need of fresh blood. This is probably the unexpectedly good consequence of Martin single-mindedly destroying the political career of every member of the old guard, i.e Copps, Manley, Rock etc. Martin's obsession with destroying the liberal left has resulted in all the Quebec troopers such as Cauchon and Coderre being pushed out as well. Add to this the fact that alone among the spoilt remainders, left to wave the Federalist flag in Quebec, is Stephane Dion. Given Quebec's remarkable transformation into a markedly progressive society comparable to many more famous European examples, Belinda Stronach is probably better suited than most of the old white males in the party to appeal to voters. She and Dion are the only high-profile Liberals to be untainted by the sponsorship scandal. In fact, she has bounded from the ranks of the main accusers in this imbroglio. IF- if she can learn to campaign in french, the liberals will be able to showcase her youth and modernity and hide from the voters, a party bankrupt of ideas or ideology. If, she learns French quickly and doesn't reinvent the bimbo of Harper as the bimbo of Martin (a position that Anne McLellan will be loathe to give up) she has the ability to continue the work she was doing in the Conservative Party, i.e building a political base for herself in Quebec, and possibly even challenge Martin. Martin, seen in English Canada as the fallen deficit-slaying hero, is seen in Quebec as a spineless letdown of his francophone roots (which is any case were mostly media dreamt-up).


The Belinda Effect- it remains to be seen how large and where it will take place.